Argus jet fuel index
Argus jet fuel index – November
US jet fuel prices tumbled to the lowest levels since early March as the underlying Nymex basis sold off 31¢/USG, or 14pc, over the course of the month, while lower prices saw jet fuel exports reach record seasonal highs.
Exports of jet fuel surged to average 225,000 b/d in mid-November which coupled with rising domestic demand drew down inventories more than 3.4mn bl, or 8pc, over the course of the month to the lowest seasonal level in three years.
Exports have averaged 204,000 b/d through the first three weeks of November, notching the highest mark for any November on record and 32.5pc above the five-year average for this month. Fixture reports showed 348,000 bl of clean products booked to Brazil from the US Gulf coast last week, and another 228,000 bl of clean products were booked for Mexico.
US jet fuel stocks saw their largest one-week draw since November 2006 earlier this month, shrinking by 2.4mn bl, or 5.6pc to 40mn bl. This marked the fifth straight week of declines and the lowest level since April. Slowing import flows, rising domestic demand and lower production pressured inventories, while demand is set to surge to ahead of the peak Thanksgiving holiday travel period.
US airlines expect to carry a record-setting 30.6mn passengers over this year’s Thanksgiving holiday period, a 5.5pc increase from 2017 levels, according to industry group Airlines for America. An attractive jet fuel arbitrage to the US northeast has seen US Gulf coast shippers competing with heavy diesel shipments. US jet fuel production ramped up to meet the travel season and export demand.
Total output rose by 6pc from the prior week to a six-week high at 1.7mn b/d. The Midcontinent saw the biggest spike in rising by 12.5pc to 288,000 b/d. Gulf coast jet fuel output grew by 6.8pc to 914,000 b/d while West coast production increased by 6.8pc to 486,000 b/d.
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